Library: Marsh’s Political Risk Report 2024

The “Marsh report on Political Risk Report 2024” provides insights into the volatile and riskier world that businesses face due to systemic macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, highlighting the increasing frequency and severity of trade disruptions, conflicts, and the erosion of international governance norms.

Key Points

• More than 60 elections are scheduled to take place around the world in 2024, primarily focused on inward-looking economic policymaking and outward-looking security concerns, which may lead to policy uncertainty, market disruptions, and the potential for electoral violence and disinformation amplified by artificial intelligence (AI).
• The global macroeconomic transition may discourage businesses from pursuing investment opportunities, necessitating increased reliance on data and risk analysis to navigate disrupted supply chains and an unstable geopolitical environment, while high debt levels among companies and governments could further stress the delicate economic period.
• Governments will continue implementing protectionist climate change mitigation and investment policies, potentially disrupting contract stability, project investment returns, and creating opportunities ranging from national food security projects to water access sustainability improvements.
• Water shortages and worsening food insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, increase the risk of business disruptions, social unrest, and conflicts, with populations in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia being particularly vulnerable.
• The renormalization of government-led industrial and trade policies will overlap with the climate change agenda, creating a fluid web of regulatory complexity and political risks for businesses, with the potential for advanced economies’ climate policies to adversely impact vulnerable emerging markets.

Conclusion

In this era of uncertainty and a broadening range of possible scenarios and structural outcomes, businesses that understand, accept, manage, and transfer the inherent risks in the changing macroeconomic and geopolitical environment will be well-positioned to pursue growth opportunities during this period of transition. The report emphasizes the importance of identifying salient risks, considering potential knock-on disruptions, focusing on data, and exploring risk mitigation solutions to navigate the volatile landscape successfully.

Link to full report: click here

The TDI editorial team uses AI to support the creation of this summary, but all content is reviewed and edited before publication.