Personal Sedan Sales in Jeopardy as U.S. Auto Market Transitions to “Islands” of Autonomous Mobility
Article Synopsis :
This press release and related video from KPMG predicts that self-driving cars and mobility services will combine to reduce the consumer desire to own cars, particularly sedans. In fact, KPMG projects that sales of personally-owned sedans in the U.S. will drop precipitously – from 5.4 million units sold today to just 2.1 million units by 2030.
In addition, according to KPMG, the transportation market will evolve from a national or regional one to 150-plus “islands of autonomy” – metropolitan areas that each have their own distinct mix of consumer travel needs delivered by autonomous mobility services.
The adoption of this new transportation mode will not be immediate, and it will not be everywhere. Instead, it will arrive metro market by metro market. Each island of autonomy will require a unique mix of vehicles to meet unique demands, which will greatly impact the breakdown of the car park, especially sedans. There are 169 Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs) of 300,000 persons or more in the United States. Each of these CSAs fit the demographics of an island of autonomy.
The bad news for automotive OEMs is obvious. The good news for forward-thinking OEMs is a potential trillion dollar market around mobility.
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Digital Insurer's CommentsThis well-researched report from KPMG’s Auto sector has obvious implications for US-based auto insurers. You know, 2030 isn’t that far off. And KPMG isn’t the only one making such ‘radical’ predictions.
In an interview last week, long time auto executive and ‘car guy’ Bob Lutz said the era of the personal automobile will be over within 20 years, with self-driving fleets taking over and personal cars going the way of the personal horse, i.e., hobby objects for the well-heeled. Both KPMG and Mr. Lutz ultimately see what we see—urban auto (insurance) markets that look nothing like rural auto (insurance) markets.
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