Library: Accenture – Innovate for resilience and new insurance revenue
Executive summary :
Despite a year of recessionary conditions and upended risk models, our analyses show the global insurance market is headed toward significant growth over the next 5 years. Amid that growth we see new and shifting revenue pools. Insurers will need to innovate for competitive advantage in this new revenue landscape while building resilience into their business and product portfolios.
The 5-year insurance outlook
As insurers seek answers to questions about competing in this changed market, there are signs the gloomy story of 2020 will brighten. The world is slowly emerging from the pandemic, and in the process the industry is proving its resilience (Figure 1).
The insurance industry can expect to grow from $6.1 trillion in gross written premium (GWP) at the start of 2020 to $7.5 trillion by the end of 2025. This includes a US-centric $800 billion in healthcare payer premiums.
Managed healthcare plans have not traditionally been counted as part of the insurance sector but are now material due to blurring boundaries driven by global demand for digital health products and services.
While we expect an overall six-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%, emerging markets in Asia Pacific—most notably China (mainland)—are driving up the global average.
Insurance industry activity is historically tied to GDP with increasing asset ownership or asset usage driving greater demand for insurance coverage.
Our projection of $1.4 trillion in global industry growth is consistent with forecasted increases in global GDP. It is also consistent with China’s current outsized GDP growth.
While this is good news for the industry overall, growth is not linear, and won’t follow the same proportions we see in today’s current revenue pools. Gaining ground against existing and new competitors will require innovation and scenario planning.
How innovation offers competitive advantage
We expect $1.2 trillion of the $1.4 trillion in expected growth to come in existing products, which may give the false impression that staying the course is a viable plan. But insurers can no longer rely on the familiar products, channels, and historic retention rates to drive profitability long-term.
Rising costs, volatile markets, and increasing consumer demand for digital services show no sign of abating. Almost half a trillion dollars ($480 billion) of the $7.5 trillion in GWP expected in five years, or approximately 7%, would be heavily impacted by innovation.
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