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中国深度报告:新冠病毒

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关于经济表现,如老生常谈的那般:一旦美国打喷嚏,我们都会感冒。

不过也许有人会说,当中国生病时,世界其他地区都将可能患上流行病。

产生了什么影响?

每个国家都在为大范围的破坏做准备,为此,各个国家均采取了措施以增加经济的流动性,大幅降低利率,并制定计划以支持在政府的排斥社交和疏远制度下无法进行贸易的企业。

保险业如何应对?

一月份,中国中央政府明确表示,新冠病毒患者不必负担治疗费用。医院接收患者时开始不收取前期费用,而是保留详细记录以备将来报销。

中国政府在2003年非典爆发期间就制定了这种方法。医院被告知应“先治疗后付账”,在这种情况下,地方政府要承担压力。

但是,政策并不单一。在深圳,非典患者被要求支付10%的费用,而在北京(死亡案例超过190例),如果患者被诊断出感染了病毒,市政府将承担城市医疗保险计划下的所有费用。

在中国大部分地区,已确诊和疑似感染了新冠病毒的患者似乎都享有这种模式的全额报销。索赔流程得到快速跟踪,取消了对指定医院和药品的限制,并取消了免赔额,以避免出现延误。

不尽人意的结果

但是,并非所有保险行业都能在病毒面前毫发无损。以非典时期的深圳为例,2003年4月的航空保险保费收入比上年下降了18.2%。同时,货运保险承保率下降了60%,从2002年的339.52亿元下降到了137.9亿元。

然而,意外保险在2019年仅占保险业保费收入的4%。因此,病毒带来的负面影响对财产保险的整体增长几乎没有威胁。

技术的作用

除了新冠疫情造成的明显破坏外,数字时代的首次重大爆发也值得注意。

在这个数字时代,偏远地区的连通性可能加速新冠的传播,但是数字技术也有助于控制相关应对措施。

最初,社交媒体在官方媒体协调消息传递之前,就宣布了该病毒的传播情况。这在某些地区引起了恐慌,导致人们四处逃窜,从而可能将病毒传播到更远的地方。

具有讽刺意味的是,部署于更为敏捷的保险业务中的技术——人工智能(AI)和机器学习(ML),可能会成为沉默的英雄,因为它们正致力于寻找疫苗。

“支付宝健康码”是一个通过允许市民流动来刺激人们返工的特殊应用程序,由电子商务巨头阿里巴巴的姊妹公司蚂蚁金服(Ant Financial)与中国东部城市杭州市政府合作开发。

对保险市场的影响

在亚洲,医疗保健和财产保险的覆盖范围迅速扩大,将冠状病毒纳入保险项目范围。这将有助于减少公众的恐慌。

尽管可能会有大量的保险索赔,但实际上,很少有公司会受到其业务中断政策的保护。与洪水、地震或其他自然灾害期间不同,这种情况下,人们可以进入工作地点。

由于很少有企业会将传染病纳入投保范围,因此冠状病毒将被排除在外。

中期来看,保险公司的资产管理业务可能会遭受损失,这很可能会导致保险费上涨。

最终分析

新冠危机的严重程度表明,全球化之后,世界还没有为此类疫情的爆发做好准备。保险业也同样如此。

面对新冠和后续的政府建议、指导以及某些情况下的强制政策,企业和消费者在很大程度上都无能为力。

归根结底,这是一个人道主义挑战,保险业如何应对这种情况可能会决定其在后病毒时代的重要性程度。

包括旅行和服务在内的不同行业的一些企业因自身行为受到了负面响应,并遭受了声誉损失,尤其是在社交媒体上。

该病毒可能会拓宽医疗保健的覆盖面,但也会推动保险业乃至整个医疗行业的数字化进程。

 

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